Author

Julian King

Title

Election 2013: Pundits v Predictive Statistics.

Synopsis

If you believe the current vibe in the newspapers, then a Coalition win at the 2013 Federal Election is a foregone conclusion and the ALP faces electoral annihilation. With inspiration from the success of electoral statisticians such as Nate Silver in the US, we decided to investigate the upcoming election using the statistical armament at our disposal. The conclusion: although the ALP is undoubtedly in trouble, there is still the possibility of a significant ALP recovery (enough to win the election), and the ALP vote is unlikely to get worse from where it currently stands. A modest degree of ALP recovery before the election is the most likely outcome.